把握潜力：中国经济与中新关系—王小龙大使在第十届中国商业峰会上的讲话

陆欣讌 摄

尊敬的拉克森总理，

尊敬的麦克莱贸长，

各位工商界领袖，

女士们、先生们、朋友们，

Rt Hon Christopher Luxon,

Hon Todd McClay, 

Leaders of the business community, 

Ladies and gentlemen, Dear Friends,

大家好！

Kia ora!

很荣幸也很高兴再次出席中国商业峰会并致辞。感谢布里奇斯会长和奥沙利文女士的邀请。峰会经过多年发展，已日益成为增进中新相互理解、助力双边关系不断向前的重要平台。中新关系对双方来说都很重要，当前正处在关键节点。一是因为我们即将迎来两国全面战略伙伴关系建立十周年这一重要里程碑，二是因为我们两国各自及所处的外部环境都在发生复杂深刻变化。因此，大家齐聚今年的峰会、共商两国未来合作大计，更具特别的意义。

It is a privilege and pleasure to address the China Business Summit again. And thank you, Simon and Fran, for your kind invitation. Over the years, the Summit has evolved to become a go-to platform for deepening China-New Zealand mutual understanding and advancing our bilateral relationship, a relationship that matters for both countries but stands at a critical juncture, on two accounts.

First, we’ll soon celebrate the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between us, yet another major milestone in our relationship.

Second, profound changes are taking place both in the international environment and in our respective countries. 

Such that today’s Summit carries even more significance for the two sides to chart the course for future cooperation. 

众所周知，经贸务实合作是中新关系的重要组成部分，很多今天在场来宾都是其中的参与者、贡献者或利益攸关方，因此我今天就从中国经济形势以及它对双边关系的意义谈起。

It’s no secret that practical economic and trade cooperation is an integral part of China-New Zealand relations. Given many of you present here today are participants, contributors or stakeholders in relation to what happens on that front, I’d like to start by sharing my observations on the state of China’s economy and what it means for the relationship. 

中新两国正式建交以来的五十多年，特别是过去十年来，双边经贸合作取得了长足、迅猛发展，中国已连续十多年成为新西兰第一大贸易伙伴、出口市场和进口来源地，给两国和两国人民带来实实在在的好处。事实上，双边经贸关系的发展轨迹与中国自身改革开放进程是密不可分的，中国自身的改革开放为双方拓展经贸合作提供了源源不断的强劲动力。

In the past 50-odd years since the establishment of our diplomatic ties, in particular the last decade, bilateral economic and trade cooperation has made significant and rapid progress: China has been New Zealand’s largest trading partner, largest export market and largest source of import for over ten years. Working together has delivered tangible benefits to the two countries and two peoples. In fact, the footprint for the evolution of our economic ties is closely correlated to the trajectory of China’s own reform and opening up, which has been a consistent and powerful source of expansion in our bilateral trade.

中国目前已成为全球第二大经济体，甚至在有些统计口径下已成为第一大经济体。经济发展转型带动中等收入群体数量不断增加，超大规模市场日渐成熟，中国消费者对优质产品和服务的需求也与日俱增。中国货物贸易总额连续七年位居世界第一，已成为包括新西兰在内的140多个国家和地区的主要贸易伙伴。

China has grown to become the second largest economy in the world, and by some measures, it is already the largest. Its economic transformation has nurtured an increasing number of middle-income earners, a maturing super-sized market, with rising appetites for quality products and services. 

China’s trade in goods has ranked first globally for seven years in a row. It is also the major trading partner for over 140 countries and regions including New Zealand.  

关于中国经济的发展前景，一些盎格鲁-撒克逊媒体对此发出了两种截然不同、甚至完全对立的声音。一种说法是中国经济“见顶”了，更有甚者认为中国经济马上就要崩溃了；还有一种说法是中国经济过于强劲，出现“产能过剩”，将给全球带来巨大冲击。根据常识，这两种对立的说法不可能同时正确。如果再认真分析一下，其实两者都是错误的。

As for China’s economic outlook, intriguingly, there are now in some Anglo-Saxon media two diametrically opposing narratives. One says that China has already peaked as an economy, and some naysayers even come to the conclusion that China is on the brink of imminent collapse. The other says that the Chinese economy is so strong as to threaten flooding the rest of the world with its “overcapacity”. By common sense, these two opposing narratives cannot be right at the same time. Going deeper, they are, in fact, both wrong.

首先，关于所谓的“见顶论”。近几年中国经济增速确实稍有放缓，但是在诸多内外逆风挑战下，2023年依然保持了5.2%增长，增速在全球主要经济体中仍处于领先地位，这对一个30万亿新元体量的经济体来说殊为不易。根据最新数据，2024年第一季度中国国内生产总值同比增长5.3%，今年1至4月，中国外贸进出口总值同比增长9.8%，高于普遍预期。

Let’s first unpack the so-called “peak China” theory. Indeed, the pace of the country’s economic growth has slowed somewhat in recent years, but the Chinese economy, defying both internal and external headwinds, managed to register a 5.2 percent year-on-year growth in 2023, faster than most other major economies. It is no small feat for a 30 trillion-dollar economy. And according to the latest data, the country’s GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, and from January to April this year, China’s foreign trade value registered a growth of 9.8% year-on-year, faster than widely anticipated. 

中国连续多年对世界经济增长的平均贡献率超过30%。展望未来，中国仍将是世界经济发展的重要引擎。根据国际货币基金组织最新经济预测数据显示，未来五年到2029年，在全球新增经济活动中，中国占比将达到21%左右，超过七国集团（G7）的总和。

For many years, China has contributed more than 30 percent on average to world economic growth. Looking into the future, China will remain an important powerhouse driving global growth for many years to come. The IMF’s latest report forecasts that for the next five years, meaning through 2029, China will contribute at least 21% of global growth, bigger than all the G7 countries combined. 

更重要的是，中国经济正经历深层次的蜕变，从高速发展转向高质量发展。我们在追求量的持续增长的同时，更看重质的有效提升。其中最为显著的是，中国的高科技产业迅猛成长，新质生产力加速发展。全社会研发投入、高技术产业投资连续多年保持两位数增长，专利申请量和科技集群数量位居世界第一。高速铁路网不断扩容提质、5G技术、航空航天、新能源汽车、锂电池、太阳能电池等产业均走在世界前列。值得注意的是，其中不少行业的发展成就是在以美国为首国家对中国企业实施科技封锁、禁运和保护主义政策情况下取得的，特别是他们不断构筑的“小院高墙”近来院子越来越大、墙越筑越高。这再次说明中国经济的韧性和自我创新能力越来越强，长期发展动力十足、前景光明。

More importantly, the Chinese economy is now undergoing profound transformation, focusing more on high quality development rather than high speed growth. This means we’ll actively and effectively promote higher-quality growth while increasing economic output in the coming years. What’s even more significant is that high-tech industry in China has grown exponentially, with new quality productive forces emerging at an accelerating pace. China’s total input in research and development, and investment in the high-tech sector have been growing at double-digit rates for several years running, enabling China to take the lead in the number of patent applications in increasing technology clusters. China’s high-speed railroad network continues to expand and upgrade. The country has also emerged as a global leader in 5G, aerospace, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic products etc. Notably, a large part of the above has been achieved despite the constant technological blockade, embargo, and protectionist measures leveled against Chinese companies by the US-led efforts to erect ever higher walls around allegedly small yards that keep expanding. All of this, again, speaks volumes about the resilient and innovative nature of the Chinese economy, and the promising prospects for its long-term growth. 

此外，中国将坚定不移推进对外开放的基本国策，继续支持构建开放型世界经济，致力于推进包容、普惠的经济全球化。中国提出的“一带一路”倡议受到了国际社会的广泛欢迎，这是中国与世界加强互联互通、共享发展机遇的重要合作平台。在数量和质量上不断升级的“一带一路”持续为世界经济增长注入新动能，为全球发展开辟新空间，为国际经济合作打造新平台。在这一过程中，中国的对外贸易格局更加平衡稳健可持续，与全球南方及“一带一路”伙伴国家合作占比不断提高。

Furthermore, China remains steadfast in promoting opening-up as its basic national policy, and is committed to building an open world economy as well as promoting economic globalization featuring inclusiveness and universal benefits. The Belt and Road Initiative is widely welcomed by the international community as a cooperation platform for China to enhance connectivity and share development opportunities with the rest of the world. With continuous upgrading in quantity and quality, BRI keeps injecting new impetus to the world economy and breaking new ground for global development, growing into a major platform for international economic cooperation. In that process, the geographical configuration of China’s foreign trade is being put on a more balanced, stable and sustainable footing, with a higher proportion of cooperation with the Global South and BRI partner countries.  

第二，所谓的“产能过剩”完全是子虚乌有，不过是遏制中国的又一新伎俩。中国新兴产业的发展完全符合供给需求和比较优势基本原理，我们在一些高科技领域的领先优势完全是通过多年甚至几十年的艰苦努力和充分市场竞争取得的。

Second, the notion that there is massive overcapacity in China is at best misguided, which is nothing but another ploy to hold China back. The growth of emerging industries in China is fully consistent with supply and demand and the dynamics for comparative advantage. Our leading edges in some high-tech sectors are gained through years, and in some cases, decades of painstaking hard-work driven by performance and full-on market competition. 

回想过去，正是那些西方工业国家在中国仍处于早期发展阶段时说教我们，要坚持开放市场、自由贸易、可持续发展。中国认真听取有关建议，从自身国情出发，审时度势，在上个世纪70年代末作出了改革开放的战略抉择，自此成为经济全球化和构建开放型世界经济的坚定支持者和践行者。我们忠实履行了在世贸组织和包括与新西兰等达成的双边和区域自贸协定框架下所有承诺与义务。中国自身取得了举世瞩目的发展成就，同时也为世界经济作出了重要贡献。但具有讽刺意味的是，正是这些对中国说教的发达国家把他们的信条抛在了脑后。现在看得越来越清楚了，他们所谓的“公平竞争”、“比较优势”、“自由贸易”，只不过是一场只能他们赢、别人都得输的游戏。他们的所作所为，正如瑞典首相所说，是在破坏全球贸易，损害我们都倚赖的以规则为基础的多边贸易体系。他们过去常常挥舞着“规则簿”并以此为依据制裁别人，现在他们却亲手将其扔出了窗外。这再次暴露了他们成天鼓吹的“基于规则的国际秩序”的真面目，这种秩序无非是唯我独尊、所有其他国家都必须臣服于我的工具。

Looking back, it was the Western industrial countries that preached to China in its early stages of development the virtues of an open market, free trade and sustainability. We took their advice seriously, and perhaps too seriously, and made the strategic choice of reform and opening up in line with our own national conditions and global market trends in the late 1970s and has since gone on to become a staunch supporter and above all, a faithful practitioner of an open world economy and economic globalization. China has fulfilled all its commitments and obligations under WTO and its FTAs with other countries and regions including New Zealand, delivering remarkable development for itself, and at the same time, contributing to global growth. Then, ironically, the very countries having lectured us in the first place have ditched their own sermons. It so turns out that the “fair competition”, “comparative advantage” or “free trade” they espouse is but a game that must be won by them and them alone, and is for everyone else to lose.  With what they have been doing, they are, in the words of the Swedish Prime Minister, destroying global trade, as they have castrated the rules-based Multilateral Trading System we all rely on and cast out of the window the same rule-books they have brandished and thrown at everyone else. And that also reveals the true colors of their much-trumpeted “rules-based international order”, which in actuality only means that I rule and I order, and that you are ruled and can only do what I order you to. 

从需求角度看，当今世界亟需通过高科技绿色产业来应对气候变化，而绿色转型只有依靠科技进步和市场机制才能真正实现。根据国际能源署的测算，要实现全球碳中和目标，2030年世界新能源汽车需求量将达4500万辆，是2022年的4.5倍。当前全球产能远不能满足市场的实际需求，何谈过剩？中国恰恰是在符合市场规律的基础上通过不断努力，为世界提供光伏、风电、电动汽车等新能源领域的公共产品，这将助力中国自身及更广泛的国际社会以可负担成本实现低碳经济转型。

Demand-wise, the world counts on the high-tech green industry as a major pathway to tackle climate change, as the green transition can only be achieved through technological progress and market mechanisms. In fact, according to the International Energy Agency, to realize carbon neutrality, the world will need 45 million New Energy Vehicles by 2030, 4.5 times that of the demand of 2022. When the global capacity is still far below the market demand, how could there be overcapacity?  Based on market principles, China has made steady progress in the new energy area, delivering global public goods such as photovoltaic products, wind farm facilities and EVs, which helps to enable not only China but also the broader international community to transition to a low-carbon economy at affordable cost.

有人说，中国产能过剩的突出表现是中国出口太多、在全球市场占比太大。若是如此，美国、欧洲生产的中大型客机占全球市场份额超过九成，他们早就产能过剩几十年了。他们会辩称说这不是一回事儿，因为波音和空客只是服务市场需求。按这个逻辑，比亚迪和小鹏也是如此。事实上，中国的新能源产业仍主要供给国内市场，2023年中国新能源汽车对外出口仅占销量的12.7%，如果这都是产能过剩的话，那么德国80%、日本50%、美国25%的汽车产量用于出口，又该如何定义呢？按照他们的标准，这些都不应该发生，甚至国际贸易也将不复存在，全世界也会因此变得更加贫穷。

Some people have argued that the strongest evidence of the so-called overcapacity is that China exports too much and accounts for an excessive amount of global market share. If that makes any sense, the US and the EU should have stood accused of overcapacity for decades since the airliners produced by them have a market share of over 90 percent. They would tell you that it is different as both Boeing and Air Bus meet a demand. But so do BYD and Xpeng. In fact, China’s new energy industry mainly meets the needs of the domestic market, exporting only 12.7 percent of Chinese-made EVs to other countries. If this amounts to overcapacity, then what about Germany, Japan and the US, who export 80, 50 and 25 percent respectively of their manufactured automobiles? By their standards, all this shouldn’t have taken place; there wouldn’t be much international trade between countries then, and the world would be much poorer for that reason.

很明显，所谓的“中国产能过剩”叙事以及他们想为之正名的政策举措，完全是将经济问题政治化、将贸易政策武器化，公然作为其开展所谓“公平竞争”的工具。正因如此，我们坚决反对以“竞争”定义国家间关系。只要是竞争就会有输赢。企业可以按照市场原则竞争，如果输了，可能会倒闭，但这是一种建设性破坏。相比之下，没有国家想要或者能够承受输的代价，因为国家不能倒闭。正因如此，国家间竞争很容易演变为不遗余力、毫无底线、不断升级的敌对、对抗甚至冲突。这对不同国家乃至深度融合的世界经济恐怕都不是个好消息，因为这将扰乱贸易、阻碍创新、削弱增长，影响甚至破坏我们各自以及共同改善人民生活、应对全球性挑战的努力。这种“竞争”还将给国际和地区和平与安全带来不稳定因素，这是极其危险的。

Obviously, the so-called “China Overcapacity” narrative and the policy measures they are used to justify is yet another example of politicizing economic issues and weaponizing trade policies blatantly as a tool for what they claim to be fair competition. This largely explains why we reject the use of competition to define relations among countries, as in competitions, there will inevitably be winners and losers. Businesses can compete according to market rules and principles. And when a business loses in a competition, it may simply fold, in a process of constructive destruction. Contrastingly, no country would want to or afford to lose because countries simply cannot fold. That is why competitions between countries will easily degenerate into an all-out, no-holds-barred, escalating rivalry, confrontation or even conflict. This, I am afraid, is no good news for either the individual countries or the deeply interconnected global economy, in that it will distort trade, block innovation, undercut growth, and undermine our respective and common efforts to improve people’s livelihoods and tackle global challenges. And all this may come on top of these competitions being deeply and most probably dangerously destabilizing for regional and global peace and security.

陆欣讌 摄

女士们、先生们，

Ladies and Gentlemen,

中新两国经济结构高度互补，多年来两国经贸合作之所以取得丰硕成果，本质上是因为双方都积极回应彼此不断增长的需求并在合作中发挥各自比较优势，从而实现互利共赢。中方愿与新方共同努力，巩固和加强互利合作，更好造福两国人民。

The economies of China and New Zealand are highly complementary. Our bilateral cooperation, on that basis, has come a long way. The success story has only been possible with the partnership responding to the evolving demand from both sides and fully leveraging comparative advantages for mutual benefits. China is willing to work with the New Zealand to consolidate this mutually beneficial relationship, generating more tangible results for our two peoples.

为此，我们要“两条腿走路“，一方面，两国应继续推动货物和服务贸易传统合作领域稳扎稳打、再创新高；另一方面，可着眼各自国内重要发展议程探索新的合作增长点，例如基础设施建设、科技创新、绿色发展、稳定韧性供应链等领域。当前，中国正大力推动经济转型，培育和发展新质生产力，高质量发展大步向前迈进；新西兰联合政府也正致力于稳定和恢复经济、降低生活成本、改善营商环境、优化经济结构、提高劳动生产率。在这一过程中，中新双方合作空间巨大，可以继续根据各自国家需求和比较优势成为相互成就的有益伙伴。

To make this happen, we need to follow a two-pronged approach, or walk on two legs as we say in China: keep the momentum and aim even higher in the traditional sectors of our collaboration, such as goods and services trade; and at the same time, explore new growth areas aligned with our respective domestic development agenda, such as infrastructure, technology and innovation, green development, and stable and resilient supply chains. 

At present, China is vigorously pursuing an economic transition towards high-quality development by fostering new quality productive forces. Likewise, the New Zealand coalition government is prioritizing economic stabilization and recovery, lowering the cost of living, improving the environment for doing business, streamlining and upgrading the structure of the economy, and improving productivity. There is huge room for our two countries to continue to be mutually helpful partners to empower each other to achieve greater success based on our respective demands and comparative advantages.

强劲发展的经贸合作一直是中新关系的重要支柱，但两国蓬勃发展的经贸关系不可能发生在真空中，而是与双边关系的整体健康发展密不可分。可以说，没有双边整体关系的稳定发展，也就不可能有两国经贸关系的突飞猛进。

Indeed, robust economic cooperation has always been a strong pillar of the bilateral relationship. However, the thriving economic ties could not have grown in a vacuum; rather, it is intimately related to the sound development of our overall relations. It is fair to say that the leap in our economic and trade cooperation would not have been possible without the steady growth of our broader relationship. 

很高兴看到，得益于双方共同努力，两国经贸关系和整体双边关系发展实现良性互动、互相促进。随着升级版双边自贸协定的达成和完全实施，两国经贸合作实现几何级跨越。虽然在这一过程中，中方对新贸易一直是逆差，但这丝毫没有减弱中方对发展中新经贸合作的意愿。这一再证明，中方一向重信守诺，致力于扩大市场开放、实现互利共赢。不像某些国家，虽然声称是与新方有所谓“共同价值观”的“朋友”，但要么干脆不对新开放市场，要么做了承诺却从不兑现。中国一向言必信、行必果，绝不会失信于真心与我们开展合作的伙伴。

We are glad to note that the two have formed a positive loop of mutual support and mutual promotion thanks to efforts on both sides. With the conclusion and above all, the implementation of our now upgraded bilateral FTA, two-way trade between us has expanded exponentially. Notably, China has almost consistently registered deficits vis-a-vis New Zealand, but this has never diminished China’s willingness to grow our trade with New Zealand. In this connection, China has, time and again, demonstrated that it honours its words and is committed to progressively opening up our market for win-win outcomes. By contrast, certain countries claim to be New Zealand’s friends with shared values, but nonetheless either refuse outright to open their markets to New Zealand or choose to eat their own words when it suits them. As far as China is concerned, when we make a promise, we shall deliver. More importantly, we never turn our back on our friends that work with us in good faith.   

中新两国在国情、历史文化、发展阶段、社会制度等方面存在差异，对一些问题自然会有不同看法。重要的是两国如何通过建设性对话妥处分歧，不让分歧定义甚至干扰双边关系。的确，我们周围的世界正在发生深刻复杂变化，进入新的动荡变革期，但无论国际形势如何演变，中国始终坚持真正的多边主义，致力于以和平方式解决争端，捍卫以联合国为核心的国际体系和以国际法为基础的国际秩序，维护世界和平与稳定。同时，正如其他所有国家一样，中方也会坚定不移地维护自身主权、安全和发展利益。

China and New Zealand are divergent in history, culture, social system and development stage. It is only natural that we have differences on certain issues. The challenge is to manage these differences through constructive dialogues, without allowing these differences to define, let alone disrupt the development of the bilateral relations. 

It is true that the world around us is undergoing some profound and complex changes with upending upheavals and even turmoils. Yet no matter how the international landscape evolves, China remains committed to supporting true multilateralism, resolving disputes through peaceful means, and upholding the international system with the UN at its core and the international order based on international law to promote world peace and stability. Meanwhile, we will remain steadfast in safeguarding our own sovereignty, security and development interests, as all countries would do.

近些年，有种声音认为中国在国际和地区问题上越发“咄咄逼人”。但事实上，如果你仔细观察，就会发现中方大多数情况下采取的行动都是针对侵犯我们主权和领土完整、合理合法利益以及无端挑衅作出的回应或防御性反应。不是所有国家都能在面对类似情况时作出与中方同样的反应，一些国家选择诉诸武力也不会让我们感到意外，他们自己过去的行为已经一再证明了这点。

In recent years, there has been a saying that China has become increasingly “aggressive” in regional and international affairs. However, a closer look at China’s posture will tell you that in most cases, the way we have conducted ourselves has largely been responsive or even defensive, preferring to resolve the disputes peacefully, in the face of attempts to encroach on our sovereignty, territorial integrity and other key legitimate interests or in face of naked provocations. Not all other countries would respond the same way under similar circumstances. It should not be a surprise that some may opt to bomb their way out, just as they have done repeatedly in their own and recent world history. 

当前，新西兰内外都有人在炒作所谓“中国威胁论”，试图让新方相信中国是新西兰的威胁。但事实上呢？中新两国既没有历史恩怨、也没有现实根本利益冲突，双方的共同点远超分歧的事实没有改变，两国利益互补的本质没有改变，中新之间拥有巨大的合作空间的现实没有改变。中国对新西兰不是威胁，而是机遇，是互利合作的伙伴。国际局势越是复杂、各种杂音越多，两国越需要拿出战略勇气和智慧建设性管控分歧，我们比以往任何时候都更需要对话，而非 “麦克风外交”。我们不能对现实闭目塞听，放任无端指责，这只会侵蚀两国珍贵的互信。而不断累积的互信是双边关系，特别是我们双方都珍视的互利合作健康发展的重要基础。

Currently, there are voices both in and outside New Zealand framing the so-called “China Threat Theory,” attempting to persuade New Zealand to perceive China as a threat. But the truth is, there are neither historical grievances nor fundamental conflicts in interest between our two countries. The fact that our commonality far outweighs our differences remains unchanged; the complementarity of our interests remains unchanged; the enormous room for cooperation between our two sides remains unchanged. China is not a threat to New Zealand. Rather, China represents for New Zealand an opportunity and a mutually beneficial partner. The more complex the global situation is, and the more noise we hear, the more courage and wisdom we will need to manage our differences constructively. More than ever, we need dialogues rather than “megaphone diplomacy”. We must not close our eyes and minds to realities and give space to groundless accusations, which would erode the precious trust we have built up to underpin the healthy development of bilateral relations and particularly the mutually beneficial cooperation that is valued by both countries.

在这里，我也想谈一谈近来新西兰国内热议的AUKUS问题，这个问题事关中新两国的互信。中方确实对AUKUS有严重关切，因为它破坏国际核不扩散体系和地区国家建立无核区的努力，甚至很可能引发军备竞赛、加剧地区紧张。相信大家也注意到，美方高级外交官称AUKUS旨在维护美国优势地位，他们甚至公开将其核潜艇同台海局势联系起来。这充分印证，AUKUS是一个彻头彻尾的涉核军事联盟，其毫不讳言维护美国霸权并遏制其他国家的发展的目的。加入这么一个联盟，不会让任何国家更安全，也不会使亚太地区更稳定。其所谓“第二支柱”的全部意义就在于服务和支持第一支柱涉核军事合作，而非单纯的科技共享平台。新西兰国内和国际上都有很多人认为，无论以何种形式加入这样一个联盟，都是在选边站队。

In this connection, I would also like to touch on the recent debate here in New Zealand on AUKUS, given its relevance to the mutual trust between China and New Zealand. China does have serious concerns on AUKUS, as it has serious implications for the international nuclear nonproliferation regime and efforts to keep the region nuclear-free. It also threatens to start a regional arms race and lead to escalating tensions.

You may have noticed that top US diplomats have stated that the purpose of AUKUS is to preserve US primacy, and they have openly linked AUKUS nuclear submarines with the situation in the Taiwan Strait. This confirms that AUKUS is a nuclear-based military-nature alliance clearly and unabashedly designed to maintain US hegemony and contain other countries’ development. Joining such an alliance will not make any country more secure or make the Asia-Pacific region more stable. The sole purpose of its “second pillar” is to serve and support nuclear-related military cooperation under the “first pillar”, rather than being an innocent platform for technology sharing. Many people in New Zealand and beyond believe that joining such an alliance in whatever form is taking sides. 

中国向来尊重他国主权，这自然也包括他国的外交政策。但一个国家分别与互不相像甚至互不喜欢的国家各自发展关系是一回事，加入公然针对其他国家的军事联盟则是另一回事。从人类惨痛的历史教训来看，军事联盟的目的更多是赢得战争，而非维护和平。通过军事联盟将其他国家乃至整个地区绑上某些国家维护霸权的战车，往往会加剧对抗，引发、升级和扩大冲突，而不是相反。试图依靠军事联盟维护和平无异于饮鸩止渴，我们不应对此抱有幻想。

China has always respected the sovereignty of other countries, which naturally includes the making of their foreign policies. However, it is one thing for a country to develop relationships with countries that are not alike or even don’t like each other; it is quite another to join a military alliance openly targeting other countries. From the painful lessons of human history, military alliances are better at winning wars than keeping the peace. By binding others or even entire regions to the war chariot of countries seeking hegemony, military alliances tend to exacerbate confrontation, and trigger, escalate, and expand conflicts, rather than the contrary. Counting on military alliances to maintain peace is a poisoned chalice, about which we should not harbour any illusions.

不久前，我参加了最终因天气原因被取消的“澳新军团纪念日”活动，高耸的纪念碑无声地诉说着战争的祸患，提醒着我们历史的教训。据统计，二战中新西兰有一万多军人伤亡，而中国，有超过3500万军民死伤。从战火中走来，中国人民最为珍爱和平。这段历史我们不忍卒读，但永远都不应该忘却。

Not long ago, I went to attend the ANZAC Day Memorial Service in Wellington, which was unfortunately canceled due to bad weather. The towering monument stands as silent testimony to the scourge of war, reminding us of the lessons we should learn from history. Over 10,000 New Zealand soldiers were killed or wounded in World War II. For China, the number of casualties encompassing both military and civilian deaths and injuries in the same war is a staggering 35 million. Having emerged from the conflagrations of wars, the Chinese people cherish most keenly the value of peace. Though history is sometimes sobering to revisit, it must never be forgotten.

是否参与AUKUS，这最终将由新西兰自己作出决定。我们希望并相信新西兰会充分考虑自身长远和根本利益，也会着眼维护两国双边关系健康稳定发展，着眼维护地区和平稳定和整个世界来之不易的和平，最终作出正确的选择。

Coming back to AUKUS, at the end of the day, it will be a call for New Zealand to make. We hope and trust that New Zealand will eventually make its decision taking fully into account its own long-term fundamental interests as well as the imperative to promote the healthy and stable development of our bilateral relations and to preserve the hard-won peace in the region and the world.  

女士们、先生们，

Ladies and Gentlemen,

今年是中新建立全面战略伙伴关系10周年，是两国总结过去、展望未来的重要契机。中方对发展中新关系的承诺始终是明确的、坚定的，愿继续视新西兰为好朋友和重要合作伙伴。对中方而言，中新合作无禁区，双边关系无上限。但探戈舞需要两个人一起跳，中新关系的未来取决于双方的共同努力。中方期待同新方一道，在坚持相互尊重、彼此包容、聚焦合作、造福人民的基础上，推动两国全面战略伙伴关系更上层楼，更好造福两国，特别是两国人民，为地区和世界和平稳定繁荣作出积极贡献。

This year marks the 10th anniversary of the establishment of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between our two countries, which offers us a significant opportunity to take stock of what has been achieved and look ahead at future steps we could take together. On our part, the commitment to developing the relationship is firm and clear, and we want to continue to see New Zealand as a good friend and an important partner.

For China, the cooperation with New Zealand has no forbidden areas and our friendship has no limits. As it takes two to tango, the future of our bilateral relations depends on efforts from both sides. On the basis of mutual respect and accommodation, focusing on cooperation and benefiting the people, we look forward to working together with New Zealand to take our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to the next level, to better benefit the two countries, particularly the two peoples, and make positive contribution to regional and global peace, stability and prosperity.

谢谢大家！

Thank you!